Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
